Dual-clutch transmission (DCT) market is expected to expand at a steady rate in 2016. However, consumer dissatisfaction with the technology in developed markets can create significant challenges for manufacturers during the forecast period. The sluggish growth in developed markets will be compensated to a large extent by robust adoption in Asia Pacific.
Higher fuel economy and convenient driving experience will continue to influence consumer preferences in Asia Pacific, providing an uplift to dual-clutch transmission market. Strict regulatory compliance targeted to curbed carbon emissions will continue fuelling demand for the technology in 2016. DCT technology is witnessing an uptick from manufacturers, as it serves as a differentiating factor. In order to achieve fuel efficiency and lower carbon footprint, adoption of DCT technology by manufacturers for integration in hybrid vehicles, will push the demand for DCT technology. Stellar growth in manufacturing and sales of vehicles in Asia Pacific will also play a key role in driving demand for DCT technology.
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Rising environmental awareness is catapulting the demand for lower carbon footprint technologies. OEMs are meticulously following the emission standards to meet stringent environmental regulations. Consumers are seeking enhanced driving experience, pushing the demand for the technology further. However, consistent criticisations and unfavourable customer reviews regarding the technology’s performance and comfort will continue to deter the market growth. In addition, cost-intensive cost of DCT technology is expected to restrain its penetration in small and medium sized vehicles in developing economies.
Based on product type, dry clutch transmissions segment will retain dominance over wet clutch transmissions, owing to economical costs. Dry clutch transmissions are estimated to experience hefty sales of nearly 3,755 thousand units in 2016, attributed to their application in passenger vehicles.
On the basis of end use, passenger cars segment currently dominates over commercial vehicles, with over 80% of the market share. The Y-O-Y growth will however decline from 12.6% in 2016 to 11.7% in 2017.
Based on region, the technology will continue to gain traction among manufacturers in Asia Pacific. North America, Western Europe, and APAC collectively contribute around 85% share to the global market revenues. N. America and W. Europe are expected to continue declining markets for dual clutch transmission technology, losing revenue shares to APAC. China, being the largest automotive market, is anticipated to reaffirm the highest adoption of DCT technology.
Markets within APEC, including China, India, and Japan will witness introduction of compact DCT technology for compact sized vehicles. OEMs and suppliers are increasingly collaborating to improve DCT penetration in suppressed markets. Following the effort by OEMs and suppliers toward reduction in prices, DCT market may experience optimistic scenario. APAC will register the largest market in terms of volume, followed by Eastern Europe, Western Europe, and Middle East & Africa (MEA). Japan is a saturated market and will witness sluggish growth.
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Key players competing in the dual clutch transmission technology market, include BorgWarner Inc., Getrag, ZF Friedrichshafen, Continental, and Eaton Corporation. Leading companies are increasingly focusing on the rising demand for DCTs, by increasing production capacity in Asia Pacific.
Long-term Outlook: Global market for dual clutch transmission technology will witness a promising CAGR of 11.3% by value, over the forecast period 2014-2020. APAC will register the highest CAGR of 16.1% by value, by 2020 end.